Lightweight, powerful lithium-ion batteries are critical for the transition to electric vehicles, and global demand for lithium is expected to grow rapidly over the next 25 years. A new analysis from the University of California, Davis, published on May 29 in the journal Nature Sustainability, examines how new mining operations and battery recycling can meet this demand. Researchers found that recycling could significantly ease supply constraints.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cBatteries are the new huge source of lithium demand,\u201d said Alyssa Kendall, professor of environmental engineering at UC Davis, Ray B. Kron Prize winner, and lead author of the paper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Lithium is a relatively common mineral, and about 10 years ago demand was small and stable, with a few mines supplying the world, Kendall explained. Global demand for lithium has surged \u2014 by 30% just between 2022 and 2023 \u2014 due to increased adoption of electric vehicles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cGovernments need to know where lithium will come from and whether it will run out,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Previous studies projected cumulative lithium demand over the next 30 years compared to known reserves in the ground, said graduate student Pablo Busch, first author of the paper. However, opening a new lithium mine requires billion-dollar investments and can take 10\u201315 years, he added. New mining projects may be delayed or canceled due to environmental regulations and local opposition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt\u2019s not just about having enough lithium, but how fast it can be mined,\u201d Busch explained. \u201cAny supply disruptions will slow EV adoption, reduce mobility access, and prolong the use of internal combustion vehicles, leading to increased carbon emissions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are three main sources of usable lithium by ease of extraction: brine from deep underground layers, hard rock, and sedimentary clays. Half of the world\u2019s lithium currently comes from Australia, where it is mostly mined from hard rock. Some regions of South America and the US have lithium-rich brines in geothermal zones and oil fields, and the US also has lithium clays.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The fourth source of lithium is recycling of old batteries. According to Kendall, this process is still relatively costly compared to mining.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Demand and supply modeling<\/strong> Researchers said battery recycling has an extremely large impact on the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cRecycling really matters for geopolitical and environmental reasons,\u201d Kendall emphasized. \u201cIf even a small percentage of demand can be met through recycling, it significantly reduces the need for new mines.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Timing is critical. Several new mines need to be opened to create lithium supply that can later be recycled. Depending on the demand scenario, recycling will become most important around 2035.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Efficiency standards for EVs and improvements to public charging networks to reduce \u201crange anxiety\u201d can also reduce lithium demand by encouraging the use of smaller vehicles.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":4914,"template":"","class_list":["post-4917","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
Busch and Kendall modeled how the need to open new lithium mines would change under different demand scenarios. They forecast that under a high demand scenario, up to 85 new lithium deposits will need to be opened by 2050. However, with policies encouraging smaller batteries and large-scale global recycling, this need could be reduced to 15 new mines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n